Welcome to All-32, a game-by-game preview of every matchup on the NFL slate each week. The goal is to provide a look at the most critical part of each game with a marriage of data and film study. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question.
If you're interested in our game picks, you can find them on this page.
Let's get to it. All times listed as Eastern.
Key Player/Unit: NO CB Marshon Lattimore
Marshon Lattimore is the league's best man coverage cornerback outside of Los Angeles when he's on his game. Through three weeks, there's no denying he is playing at that level right now. According to Sports Info Solutions, Lattimore has been targeted just seven times on 92 covering snaps, giving up three receptions for a measly 23 yards. Lattimore has been a wide receiver-eraser.
Now he is facing one of the toughest receivers to erase in one-on-one coverage: Justin Jefferson. Jeff Okudah of the Detroit Lions did a great job keeping Jefferson down for most of last week's game, but it was not purely an individual effort. Okudah played well, particularly on press-man reps, but the Lions consistently did well to give Okudah help to enable him to play fast, physical football and fight for the catch point without hesitation.
The Saints can and will do the same thing, just with better players. Dennis Allen's Saints have been one of the biggest proponents of match quarters coverage, an aggressive brand of Cover-4, in recent seasons. It's a great coverage for getting extra bodies on receivers, especially those isolated to one side of the formation.
It's hard to imagine Jefferson getting shut down for two weeks in a row, but the Saints are one of a handful of defenses with the right personnel to make it happen.
Key Player/Unit: CLE Secondary
On an individual basis, there is plenty to be excited about in Cleveland's secondary. Denzel Ward is a stud in man-to-man, Greg Newsome is one of the league's brightest young corners, and safeties John Johnson III and Greg Delpit are a talented, versatile duo. Talent isn't everything, though.
The Browns defense is not well-coached. This is just my eye test, but few, if any, defenses are blowing coverages the way the Browns have through three weeks. Sometimes that can be chalked up to knocking off the rust early in the season, but this is Joe Woods' second year in town and the starting secondary returned four of five starters, rookie Martin Emerson being the only new face.
How does this happen? @NextGenStats #Browns pic.twitter.com/CjnkxvsaNL
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) September 18, 2022
Take this busted coverage late in the game versus the Jets, for example. Delpit (22) rolls down to play high in the hook area like he would in Cover-3, but Ward (21) falls off his man as if he's expecting help over the top from Delpit. It's more likely that Ward was in the wrong here considering the rest of the distribution plays out more like Cover-3 than whatever Ward is doing, but this isn't the only example and Ward isn't the only one making mistakes.
In this Week 1 example versus the Panthers, the Browns secondary is all over the place. Ward trots onto the field late and has to communicate with Johnson (43) about who to cover. The problem is, the strong safety to the bottom of the screen, Delpit (22), is rolled down like he's playing the flat in Cover-3, which would necessitate Johnson playing in the middle of the field. Johnson stays in a split-field alignment to the top of the screen and the Browns end up with nobody playing deep from the right hash to the left sideline. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (28) should also collide with the tight end working up the seam, but that's far from the biggest issue here.
The Browns are now up against the Falcons. While Atlanta still has a top-heavy roster that lacks pass-catchers after Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Arthur Smith has called a hell of an offense thus far and you better believe he is going to test how well this Browns secondary can communicate and pass routes off.
Key Player/Unit: BAL OT Daniel Faalele
Injuries are trying to ruin the Ravens season. Again.
Star left tackle Ronnie Stanley entered the year unready for game action as he recovers from ankle surgery. That left veteran swing tackle Ja'Wuan James to handle the left tackle job, which he did so commendably for the half of a football game he got to play before tearing his Achilles. Patrick Mekari was the next man up for the position. He lasted longer than James, but midway through last week's game against the Patriots, Mekari went down with a low ankle sprain.
The Ravens are now down to their fourth left tackle, rookie behemoth Daniel Faalele. Faalele measured in at 6-foot-8 and 384 pounds with an 85⅛-inch wingspan at the NFL combine, all of which put him at or above the 96th percentile mark. He has a one-of-a-kind frame.
As fun as an idea Faalele may be, he isn't ready for NFL reps. Faalele was always expected to be a project coming out of college, in part because he probably needed to cut a few pounds and learn to play quicker on his feet, particularly in pass-protection. Faalele also played right tackle in college, so moving over to the left side adds to an already stressful situation.
Faalele understandedly looked overwhelmed when thrown into action against the Patriots. Deatrich Wise, who is having a bit of a breakout year, had his way with Faalele, beating him a number of times around the edge. The sledding is only getting tougher this week with Von Miller, Gregory Rousseau, and the rest of the Bills' deep pass-rushing crew on deck. Faalele needs to step up and Greg Roman needs to do all he can to protect the young player in his first start.
Key Player/Unit: DAL G Jason Peters
Jason Peters signed with the Cowboys weeks ago, but did not make his brief debut until Monday night against the Giants. Peters came into the middle of the game for a couple drives, playing just 14 snaps for the night. Seeing as Peters did not spend an offseason with a team and still needs to get his legs under him again, it makes sense that he only got a handful of reps to try to get up to speed.
In his limited snaps against the Giants, Peters was a mixed bag. His strength and anchor looked up to par, but he was moving quite slowly, often unable to get his feet out of quicksand and redirect the way he used to. It makes sense why he was put at guard to begin with rather than putting him at his career home in left tackle.
If, or however much, Peters plays on Sunday, he will be tested. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are one of the nastiest interior duos in the league. While they win more with length and strength, both Allen and Payne have enough quickness and flexibility to make Peters uncomfortable if they get put into any one-on-one situations.
Peters needs to shape up quickly or the Cowboys are going to be stuck relying on Matt Farniok, which is the exact scenario they are trying to avoid by moving Peters inside.
Key Player/Unit: DET CB Amani Oruwariye
Every other time a cornerback has been featured in this column, it has been for positive reasons. Oftentimes I expect a cornerback to have a big game, or a good cornerback to be tasked with carrying the burden of the rest of the secondary. That's not the case this time. Geno Smith needs to find and pick on Amani Oruwariye the same way an eight-year-old might single out an ant with a magnifying glass under the hot sun.
Oruwariye was a trainwreck versus Minnesota and he wasn't even matching up with Justin Jefferson for most of the game. That was Jeff Okudah's job, which he handled quite well. Despite getting the easier assignment, Oruwariye was targeted eight times versus the Vikings, surrendering six catches for 75 yards. That's not an all-time bad performance just by those numbers, but considering he also picked up a defensive pass interference call for 21 yards, two illegal contact penalties, a defensive holding call, and a number of missed tackles, it was a pretty miserable performance all around.
On most snaps against the Seahawks, Oruwariye is going to end up facing DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. Perhaps he could survive against Metcalf if allowed to press him and win at the line of scrimmage, but Lockett's quick, crisp route-running will eat Oruwariye alive. Smith had better find No. 24 on the boundary every snap and think about how to progress the play from there.
Key Player/Unit: LAC OT Jamaree Salyer
Filling in for Rashawn Slater to protect Justin Herbert's rattling ribcage is a lot to ask of anyone. For a sixth-round rookie like Jamaree Salyer, it is a Herculean task.
Salyer was not even the midgame fill-in for Slater against the Jaguars on Sunday. That responsibility was left to veteran swing tackle Storm Norton, who started on the right side for most of last season. Considering Salyer is a late-round rookie with zero game reps, it made sense to not throw him into action against a fierce Jaguars front to learn on the fly, but it makes the decision to start him now all the more surprising.
Coming out of Georgia, some expected Salyer to kick inside to guard. He is a bit short for a left tackle at 6-foot-3 and his 33⅝-inch arms are not ideal either. Pair that with his tight, sometimes sluggish footwork and it's not hard to understand why he was expected to move inside in the pros. Still, the national title-winning Georgia Bulldogs trusted Salyer at left tackle for two seasons, and he showed great anchor and violent, active hands. That may not be enough for Salyer to stick at left tackle long-term, but he is going to need to make it work for the rest of this season.
Houston's pass rush doesn't have a clear home-run hitter, but they have a solid two-deep rotation. Jerry Hughes has been as steady as ever as a speed-rusher off the edge, while the combination of Jon Greenard, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, and Rasheem Green have done well to provide quality pass rush no matter which of them is on the field at a given time. Through three weeks, the Texans defense ranks 12th in total pressures and are one of just seven teams with double-digit sacks.
Salyer will be tested for four quarters, and he will need to hold up if the Chargers want any chance to keep Herbert safe enough to pass them to victory.
Key Player/Unit: IND linebackers
Playing linebacker against the Titans is a torture chamber. Even this watered-down version of the offense still wants to run Derrick Henry through everyone's face before hitting shot plays over the middle of the field off play-action. It has been their formula ever since Mike Vrabel took over at head coach and it probably will be until Malik Willis takes over at quarterback, be that later this year or in the future.
Playing linebacker for Gus Bradley is its own nightmare too, at least for pass defense. Bradley's defense wants eight men in the box, every gap accounted for, and everyone to play fast as hell to any run action. It makes them more susceptible to play fakes, especially compared to last year's scheme under Matt Eberfulus, but that's just the give and take. The idea is that constantly slowing down the run game and creating havoc with a relentless front will eventually outweigh whatever is sacrificed in the passing game.
Bobby Okereke, Zaire Franklin, and E.J. Speed will be tested. Franklin is the fill-in for Shaquille Leonard right now and Speed is the team's third linebacker in a nickel-based league, so perhaps it's unfair to expect much from them. Okereke, on the other hand, is a good starter who plays well sideline-to-sideline and is quietly one of the better coverage defenders in the NFL. If Okereke can stay on top of Tennessee's fakes and make the middle of the field a perilous place to throw, the Colts should have a decent chance.
Key Player/Unit: CHI running backs
Nobody besides fantasy football players needs to care because the Bears feel like a team that is dead in the water, but David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are one of the league's best one-two backfield combos. Montgomery has been one of the tougher running backs to bring down in the NFL for a few years now, but he has had issues being healthy enough to make sure he stays fresh in everyone's minds. Herbert, on the other hand, was a surprise sixth-round rookie last season, dazzling with impressive vision and short-area burst.
The numbers paint the duo as a lethal pairing as well. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Bears rank second in broken tackle plus missed tackle rate at a flat 25% over 104 carries. The first-place Raiders have 51 fewer carries, which might suggest a bit of flukiness to their success compared to the Bears. Moreover, the Bears convert 26% of their carries into first downs. While that ranks a solid 11th place, the figure is made more impressive when considering the volume they are running at and how little defenses respect their passing game.
Montgomery, Herbert, and the Bears offensive line now get to tee off against a Giants run defense that ranks 28th in DVOA through three weeks. The Giants did surprisingly well corralling Derrick Henry in Week 1 but followed that up with two pitiful performances against the Panthers and Cowboys, two teams that have more or less had the same rushing success as the Bears this year.
Key Player/Unit: JAX LB Devin Lloyd
Linebacker Devin Lloyd was one of two Jaguars defenders spotlighted in this week's Film Room piece alongside fellow first-round rookie Travon Walker. Lloyd has been effective in all phases of the game, but his coverage ability is what has made him an early candidate for defensive rookie of the year. In this particular matchup, Lloyd's ability to patrol the middle of the field is more valuable than ever.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has taken strides as a passer over the middle of the field. He has been a little more willing to attack that area this season after spending his first two seasons in the league avoiding it like the plague. It's not been enough to definitely say Hurts is comfortable throwing to that area of the field, though. He still can get gun-shy and would much rather throw iso balls on the outside or scramble around to make something happen.
If Lloyd is on his game, he may be able to dissuade Hurts from the middle of the field entirely. Lloyd isn't quite Fred Warner or anything yet, but he plays with great spatial awareness, both for what's in front of him and what routes are developing behind him. Pair that with Lloyd's quick-twitch athleticism and 80-inch wingspan, and you get the football equivalent of a gargoyle warding off evil middle-of-the-field throws.
Now, forcing Hurts away from the middle of the field is no guarantee for success. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are studs and should outplay the Jaguars' outside cornerbacks, who have admittedly been quietly impressive this season. Doing anything to make the offense less flexible is always helpful, though, and perhaps a few more matchup wins elsewhere for the Jaguars could be enough to hold the Eagles to a reasonable figure on the scoreboard.
Key Player/Unit: PIT QB Mitch Trubisky
Mitchell Trubisky won't be starting by the end of the season. You know that, I know that, and he knows that. The Steelers still need to win games in the meantime, though, and this is as winnable a matchup Trubisky is going to get for the foreseeable future.
The rest of the AFC North has already torched the Jets through the air, even the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns in Week 2. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA through three weeks. Despite adding Ahmad Gardner and returning or adding a handful of pass-rushers off the edge, the Jets still surrender an endless stream of passing yards to whomever they face. Gardner has been solid individually, which is a big reason the Jets rank 13th in DVOA against No.1 wide receivers, but he isn't getting any help elsewhere. The rest of the secondary leaks like the Titanic and Robert Saleh insists on primarily sending four rushers despite ranking 25th in pressures.
This is Trubisky's chance to cosplay like a capable NFL quarterback. Gardner is only capable of covering one of Diontae Johnson or George Pickens on a given play, not to mention what Chase Claypool can do if Trubisky can get the ball in his hands. Pat Freiermuth should be active over the middle of the field as well, though Kwon Alexander is a better cover linebacker than he gets credit for. If Trubisky can not play efficient football against this defense, he won't against any defense, and the Steelers might as well just throw Kenny Pickett into the meat grinder at that point.
Key Player/Unit Coach: ARI HC Kliff Kingsbury
This isn't really specific to this game, but it's time to get the conversation rolling: Kliff Kingsbury needs to do his job.
Without DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup to be Kyler Murray's security blanket on the boundary, the Cardinals offense has been hopeless this season. Arizona cannot get anyone open down the field, the run game is less efficient than it has been in the past because defenses do not currently fear the Cardinals spreading them out, and rookie tight end Trey McBride cannot even see the field. It's a disaster.
All of Arizona's issues can be boiled down to Murray's depth of target. Per Sports Info Solutions, only Aaron Rodgers has a lower average depth of target than Murray. The Packers have made it clear that they are a two-back, grind-it-out offense, so their place at the bottom is more understandable. It has not hurt them much either. The Packers offense may be annoying to watch at times, but they still rank ninth in DVOA.
For the Cardinals, it's inexcusable to be that low. They traded their first-round pick for Marquise Brown, a deep threat, and have one of the best deep-passing quarterbacks in the NFL, yet their entire offense has revolved around throwing the ball within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage from spread formations. It's a high school-level dink-and-dunk Air Raid offense that has lost what little creativity Kingsbury brought to Arizona in the first place. Sure, any offense would be worse off and more limited without Hopkins in the lineup, but Kingsbury has done nothing to quell the issue.
Kingsbury has devolved to relying on cheap yards after the catch and a few magical plays from Murray being enough to win football games. That didn't work for him at Texas Tech with Patrick Mahomes, there's no reason he should think that's a good enough strategy now.
Key Player/Unit: NE offensive line/run game
The Packers have the worst run defense DVOA in the NFL. Drafting Devonte Wyatt and Quay Walker, as well as signing Jarran Reed, was supposed to prevent that from happening again, but Walker is the only one of the three additions living up to his billing. In fact, Wyatt has hardly seen the field, meaning Dean Lowry has continued to get far more snaps than he should.
The Patriots, on the other hand, can run the heck out of the ball. We all know Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are tough, efficient runners, but sorting out what the Patriots offensive line would look like was a mystery coming into the year. They have exceeded expectations, particularly rookie Cole Strange.
The first-round pick out of Chattanooga was much maligned on draft night, but Strange has been a force in the run game. Not only does he have all the gritty, tough-guy strength you expect out of a Belichick lineman, but he moves well in and out of combination blocks and consistently gets work done beyond his first assignment.
Strange flashed some of his quick thinking and footwork against the Ravens last week. In the clip above, Strange (69) is comboing Justin Madubuike (92) up to linebacker Patrick Queen (6). Normally, Strange would have some time to knock Madubuike back before moving onto Queen, but Queen gets downhill instantly. Strange is quick to react, pulling both his hands back from Madubuike to strike Queen and drive him inside while still maintaining a physical presence on Madubuike as long as possible. That's sharp thinking for a rookie.
With quarterback Mac Jones likely to miss this game with a high-ankle sprain, the run game will be as important as ever. Harris and Stevenson need to be unlocked in the run game to help keep the ball out of the hands of both quarterbacks.
Key Player/Unit: DEN CB Patrick Surtain II
If Patrick Surtain II is not already considered a top-three cornerback in the league, he will be by the end of the season. Surtain is all of 6-foot-2, 208 pounds and sports a 90th-percentile wingspan. He is a far smoother mover than anyone his size should be, in part because he plays with excellent eye discipline and quick, precise footwork. Surtain is a stunning athlete for the position with all the savvy necessary to lock up any receiver, any time, anywhere.
Surtain flashed all of those traits as a rookie, but he has brought it all together this year. Surtain goose egged a good 49ers receivers corps on Sunday night, shutting the window on all six targets his way. The Broncos were perfectly comfortable leaving him in isolated coverage and letting him go to work.
Surtain (2) is lined up over Brandon Aiyuk to the bottom of the screen. Aiyuk tries to threaten Surtain with his speed with the vertical route stem, but Surtain doesn't budge. Light as a feather on his toes, Surtain matches Aiyuk's initial route break perfectly, then again when Aiyuk stops and turns back to the quarterback. The moment Aiyuk opens back up to the line of scrimmage, Surtain knows the ball is coming his way and instantly drives down to disrupt the catch point, never needing to look at the quarterback to confirm the ball was coming.
Surtain's footwork and athletic ability were on display on a deep target to Aiyuk later in the game. Here the two are matched up at the bottom of the screen with Surtain in press coverage, his specialty. Aiyuk tries to give Surtain a little shimmy, but Surtain keeps his base light and ready to react to anything Aiyuk does. Aiyuk eventually takes off again and Surtain has no issue going step-for-step with him, eventually jamming a hand into the receiver's chest to disrupt any chance at finding the ball. (Not that this throw gave Aiyuk much of a chance anyway, but still).
It's going to be another tough day at the office against Davante Adams, but Surtain is ready for it.
Key Player/Unit: TB WR Mike Evans
The Buccaneers passing attack was pathetic without Mike Evans in the lineup last week. A number of other players were missing as well, including Julio Jones and Chris Godwin, but Evans is still the star in Tampa Bay's receiver room. He needs to be out there for the Bucs passing offense to function in any capacity.
Without Evans as a field-stretcher and ball-winner, Tom Brady was noticeably less aggressive. Brady had been conservative and quick to throw in the first two weeks, too, but last week's game against the Packers was particularly depressing to watch. Nate Tice of The Athletic mentioned on his Sunday night show that the Packers game was Brady's lowest single-game average depth of target since becoming a Buccaneer. That's not a winning model for any quarterback, not even the ever-flexible Brady.
Since Evans only missed the Packers game due to a suspension following a scrap against the Saints, he will be back this week. The others, namely Jones and Godwin, have been limited participants in practice and may or may not be ready for game day. While it would be nice to have the other two ready to go, getting Evans back into the fold to provide Brady some sort of insurance at all levels of the field should make the Buccaneers passing offense watchable again.
Key Player/Unit: SF LB Fred Warner
This is going to read a lot like the Jaguars preview from earlier, but with a different quarterback dynamic. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is one of the league's most aggressive passers over the middle of the field. Stafford wants to hit crossers, seams, digs, and everything else in between the numbers. Few quarterbacks are as aggressive, timely, and accurate over the middle of the field as Stafford. The entire construct of the Rams offense has deteriorated this year, so the efficiency has not been as impressive, but that's still where Stafford wants to sling it.
No linebacker in the league closes windows over the middle of the field like Fred Warner. Nobody else is in his universe. Warner plays like he has eyes on the back of his helmet. Not only that, but the way he spaces himself when carrying routes and flowing from one window to another is suffocating. He gives receivers no room to breathe and quarterbacks no opportunity to fit the ball in, lest they simply think they can zip one by his head.
Just last week against Denver, Warner helped force a sack with his coverage. The Broncos are trying to run a dagger concept with the inside receiver clearing out vertically and the outside receiver running a deep dig route behind him. Warner (54) recognizes the play fake instantly, regains depth in his zone drop, and swivels his eyes back and forth between the quarterback and outside receiver to stay under the route. Warner gives no room for the route to be thrown, giving the 49ers fierce pass rush time to get home.
Assuming Warner is on his A-game, and he usually is, Stafford is going to have a tough day hitting his mark over the middle.
This article first appeared on Football Outsiders and was syndicated with permission.
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!